Insights
- The WTO global goods trade saw a strong uptick in early 2025, driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs.
- However, weakening export orders suggest this momentum may not be sustained.
- It rose to 103.5 from 102.8 in March, while the new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later this year.
- The raw materials index showed modest growth.
The latest June barometer rose to 103.5—up from 102.8 in March, while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year as enterprises import less and start to draw down accumulated inventories.
Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes, while those less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
On the other hand, most other barometer components have risen above trend. Transport-related indices, including air freight (104.3) and container shipping (107.1), reflect increased movement of goods.
The raw materials index (100.8) showed only modest growth, just above baseline.
World merchandise trade volume growth moderated in the fourth quarter of 2024, but it likely rebounded in the first quarter this year based on the goods barometer and preliminary trade data, a WTO release said.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)